Geoscientists Use Numerical Model to Better Forecast Forces Behind Earthquakes

Science Daily

Stony Brook University researchers have devised a numerical model to help explain the linkage between earthquakes and the powerful forces that cause them, according to a research paper scheduled to be published in the journal Science on Feb. 17. Their findings hold implications for long-term forecasting of earthquakes.

William E. Holt, Ph.D., a professor in the Geosciences Department at Stony Brook University, and Attreyee Ghosh, Ph.D., a post doctoral associate, used their model to help explain the stresses that act on Earth’s tectonic plates. Those stresses result in earthquakes not only at the boundaries between tectonic plates, where most earthquakes occur, but also in the plate interiors, where the forces are less understood, according to their paper, “Plate Motions and Stresses from Global Dynamic Models.”

“If you take into account the effects of topography and all density variations within the plates — the Earth’s crust varies in thickness depending on where you are — if you take all that into account, together with the mantle convection system, you can do a good job explaining what is going on at the surface,” said Dr. Holt.

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